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The very warm weather area-called “extreme hot belt”-with at least one day per year where the heat index reaches 125 Fahrenheit (52C), is expected to include houses in the US to more than 100 million people in 2053, according to a study new. Research, conducted by the First Street Foundation Non-profit, uses a peer-review model built with public and third data to estimate the heat risk of what they call the “hyper-local” scale of 30 square meters.
The First Street Foundation mission is to make climate risk modeling can be accessed by public, government and industrial representatives, such as real estate investors and insurance companies. The main findings of this study are that heat that exceeds the threshold of the highest category of national weather services – called “extreme hazards,” or above 125f – is estimated to have an impact of 8.1 million people in 2023 and grow to 107 million people in 2053 , increased 13 times.
This will cover geographical areas that stretch from North Texas and Louisiana to Illinois, Indiana, and Wisconsin – inland areas far from more climates often seen near the coast. The heat index, also known as a clear temperature, is what it feels like the external temperature for the human body when the relative humidity is combined with air temperature.
To make their model, the research team checks the surface temperature of the land inherited satellites and air temperatures between 2014 and 2020, to help understand the right relationship between two measurements. This information is then studied by calculating the height, how water is absorbed in the area, distance to surface water and distance to the beach.
This model was later upgraded to climate conditions in the future, using the “middle -way” scenario imagined by inter -government panels about climate change, where the level of carbon dioxide began to fall in the middle of a century, but did not reach a clean zero in 2100. Outside the “extreme danger”, regions throughout the country are expected to experience hotter temperatures, with various levels of endurance.
“This increase in local temperature produces significant implications for people who are not accustomed to warmer weather relative to their normal climate,” the report said. For example, an increase in temperatures of 10 percent in the northeast state of Maine may be as dangerous as a 10 percent increase in the state of Southwest Texas, even though the higher absolute temperature is seen in Texas.
The biggest predicted local temperature shift occurred in Miami-Dade County, Florida, which currently sees seven days per year at the hottest temperature of 103 Fahrenheit. In 2053, the number was expected to increase to 34 days at 103 degrees. And the increase in the use of air conditioners that may occur from such a surge in temperature will make an energy grid, the report warns, which leads to brownouts that are more frequent, longer.
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